Last week's ideas
On WTI crude oil, the continuation of the move down was there for anyone following oil last week. The British pound ran into the zone sitting up top and couldn't break through it. The Japanese yen performed well on both futures and spot — a good reaction off the options data, confirmed by a solid Range Projector zone, and on spot it worked a zone off nicely, twice. And on Tuesday gold offered a good P/F zone, off which shorts were available one last time before the move up began.
This week — the context
Last week the market was fun. We saw yet another painted, weak NFP with a downward revision, which sent risk assets flying against the buck — and it became clear why the euro was being stubbornly held in place with puts, not allowed to slip lower. When someone trades puts like that, they are waiting for the futures to rise.
On the FedWatch tool, the 30% probability priced for a hike got wiped out after the NFP — 45% remains of the former 75%. If the CPI "comes down" too, the market will move on to trading whether the Fed holds or cuts in September.
EUR
At 1.1442 sits the strongest support from the buyers — the reaction there on a Monday–Tuesday push down will be interesting. Above it are the buy targets and the entries into sells. The most interesting area starts at 1.1586; at 1.1632 there is a long-standing Debt and a good zone to work. At the 1.16 strike the market is met with calls — getting above it will be difficult. The August boundaries are marked out; through Friday the plan is to work the 1.1628 zone with a stop behind the MVF Week. Before July 14–15, more likely a sluggish drift than any pops.
GBP
The MVF of the week and month gives good Monday support at 1.3250. If that support gets pressed through, 1.2915 is the August target — and from there you can work with confidence. Sells no earlier than 1.3582; taking that zone with the Cluster only makes sense if US CPI "comes down." The Cluster confirms.
JPY
They might start painting some nonsense here, but the path higher still looks favoured — the Bank of Japan won't be given an easy breath. The US Treasury hasn't joined the interventions yet, and the market will be waiting for them. The lower MVF is the 166.500–167 area on spot — where the market maker and funds would get involved and the BoJ and Treasury would step in — but the chance of reaching it remains small for now. If the futures are dragged higher, 0.006395 is the zone to work, and the nearest ones by market too: catching the intervention is easier than catching a reversal against it.
Gold
For Monday morning: the 4080 zone is the key interest — some notable speculators opened positions there. Into Friday's short-day close a Debt was left at 4126. Sells by market are on watch from 4265.5, and on the MVF the 4468 zone is the one to work toward first. The weak jobs numbers gave an impulse that prevented a proper push down to 3800 for a buy-back; Thursday offered a chance to buy in.
The working plan: 4080 for sure, an alert on the freshly opened puts to try by market, 4266 for sells. 4127 is questionable — reduced size if at all; the zone itself is unconvincing even with levels and a Debt present.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above.