Last week's recap
The week started with an excellent trade on GBP — two zones traded from one to the other, into longs and back into a short, with a double reaction. In parallel, a euro trade ran that only worked on the short side; the stop was deliberately parked behind the zone on the correlated asset — GBP — and it worked out great. The NQ zone also worked, but that trade was skipped deliberately: the news background and geopolitics didn't match a rise in NQ, and that's exactly how it played out. Toward the end of the week the euro gave a couple more entries in the zones that formed as the week went on.
CPI got sat out on purpose. Bloomberg floated a 0.4% drop in June inflation — too much even allowing for oil's lag. The print landed with the decline, the market believed neither the CPI report nor the nonfarm, and all the growth evaporated after the spurt. Without oil, judging by the report, US inflation is zero — and that's a fairy tale.
Next week's drivers
One driver matters: Friday. Everything else is noise — even the ECB won't touch the rate. The open question is whether there's a TACO from Trump on Iran; that could hand the market a trend. Otherwise, stand down until July 29.
EUR
An absolutely identical straddle went in — same breakeven as last week, again at the boundary of the balance. Alongside the off-exchange trades there's an entry of 7,560 puts at the central strike in synthetics — volume like that hasn't printed in a long time, in July no less, and at the lower boundary of the balance. The read: they're trading volatility and a move, direction indifferent, hedged everywhere so they can flip either way. Upside: the synthetic breakeven (the middle of the two openings) earns until August 7 on an exit above it, with a strangle a bit higher. Downside: futures get closed, and a break of the lower balance boundary puts those 7,560 puts back to work.
Given how long this accumulation has run, the exit from it is a 300–400 point move without long stops. So no buy-backs until 1.1553 is worked — and possibly the break that follows — and shorts only after the 7,560-put level breaks to the downside.
Gold
A unique situation: all the delta-hedge zones of the market maker and the funds — the Wednesday, the week, and the contract — landed on Reaction Level zones. That alignment alone is a call to action off those zones. If the buy-back off the visible zones continues, a pullback entry into a buy toward max pain before expiration is the play, off the two zones. If the open pushes straight down to 4047, the buy-back attempt is still on — the stop is tiny for that kind of potential. The buy-back so far is fairly dumb, and risk should stay at or under 1%.
Crypto
Started glancing at crypto — but only glancing. The coma there hasn't ended yet.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above.