Last week’s recap
It began with an excellent follow-through on the euro, exactly as we mapped in the previous weekly review, and on the same day gold gave a clean two-way move from one zone to the other. Silver spent the whole week fighting inside the range flagged earlier and never developed a normal move — so it stayed untraded, on watch lower. On the yen the interventions arrived just as described, with the US Treasury getting involved on top of it; the zones above weren’t reached, but the main intervention target was worked perfectly. And the dollar index is still holding well on its zone — more on that below.
The big picture: an NFP week
Before the individual instruments, the frame — because everything this week hangs off Friday’s jobs report. The currencies have already leaned risk-on, but gold has not yet followed, which is worth keeping in mind. Weak data on Friday reopens dollar weakness across the board; a firm number keeps the dollar supported. Let the print land, then let price come to the levels below.
EUR
The 10% zones line up both from the contract and on the weekly, and that’s also where the oldest Debt on the euro — from April 30 — still sits. As noted last week, into the expiration price goes up, but an adequate entry down at the lows for that ride wasn’t given; the reversal was worth waiting for around 1.1185 or 1.1285. The 25% zones, both the upper and the lower, are interesting for trading, the lower one especially. On December, 6000 calls went through at the 1.20 strike — on spot that is the 1.1961 region, and there is a Debt there too — but that already points to a reversal into further growth, all the way toward 1.23 on spot.
DXY — the dollar index
98.35 is the last support before 94, and 100.85 is the last resistance before 103.85. What the index chooses becomes clear after the NFP. If the print comes out weak, the path opens toward 94 by the new year.
JPY
From the dollar to the yen. As already covered, the Treasury and the Bank of Japan stepped in. The main question now is whether they repeat 2024 or not. If they do, the levels to catch it are 144.50 and 150.75; there is also a chance it gets stuck at 147.50 — but from there, without limits.
Gold
To the metals, starting with gold. Unlike the currencies, gold hasn’t given in to the risk-on yet, which is fairly strange given that price has been in compression for a month and the H4 is drawing a pennant — the spring should straighten out. The weekly zone looks great for buys off it, and the month zone sits clearly at 3551–3565. Everything from last week still stands: if there is enough strength to spill down to 3550, then from there the longer read runs toward 4530 through the end of the year.
Silver
From gold to silver — broadly the same logic. The percentage zones landed well on the levels, so it is a case of letting the market show what it gives to work with.
WTI — the week’s main focus
Some interesting strikes went in on the oil options. There are of course options up at 130, 138 and 147, but that is too far — only worth it if you leave part at breakeven and don’t close, and Trump tends to back off on a strong rise, which is the case again now. For now that is how it looks; the nearer strikes are the ones in work.
GBP
And finally the pound. The open question is whether to trade it from the long side and whether the reversal has already passed. Something like that could form in the move, with a shot up on the NFP if the data comes in weak. The balances that have sat in the market and haven’t really been broken over the last year make it quite realistic that price stays within them.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above.