Last week’s recap
We caught good longs right away, exactly as mapped in the last review — but price ran straight off the upper zones without working the lower ones first. The best trade of the week was gold: even though I’d expected it lower, an interesting balance with a squeeze formed and a zone appeared to work longs off, and almost the entire move up was there to catch. Silver was the same story — you could then have worked a little into shorts from the zones above, but I skipped it because of the strong trend up. On the S&P 500 I posted an idea for a sharp move up on the open options, but I couldn’t take the trade: the method didn’t give a clean entry.
The big picture: metals squeeze, a big S&P hedge
Two threads run through this week. First, the metals: gold and silver are coiling in a squeeze, and the zones below are where the interest sits. Second, a very big hedge just went in on the S&P — large enough to shape where the index reacts if it sells off. Everything below is built around those two.
Silver
The plan for now: if they pull back, the better-confirmed cluster is the 60 zone. A spread also went in at 92–100, and the chart is showing the same accumulation as back in September before the move up — an interesting coincidence. I’ll be placing buy takes onto that spread if they let me in. Above, I’ll also try for shorts if Monday opens with a rise, since the US–Iran situation is still unclear. The 60 level is strong for a reason: besides the cluster confirmation, it’s an intersection of two Fibonacci grids and the strongest Reaction Level zone, together with Renko and Point-and-Figure.
Gold
Simpler here — I’ll be watching the open. If it pushes through the top, sells from 4532. If they come out even higher, into the 10% zone, then after an impulse forms I’ll look at sells there too. Buys are simpler still: 4223 looks great. The contract’s maximum volatility sits at 5250 right now — in play if silver does run to 100.
Platinum
Worth a look at platinum futures too. I often watch platinum as an early indicator for a nascent trend, and here there’s no reversal in sight at all. That’s slightly concerning — but we’ll see how it develops.
S&P 500
A very big hedge went in here — really very big. On a decline, I’ll work the futures in the 7600–7650 and 7500–7550 ranges, where the Reaction Level zones are; the markup is on the December contract. Ideally these portfolios already carry a future, but they can go in without one if the intent is to buy back lower. So the options have highlighted for us both what to work with, and where to sell on a reversal from the upper portfolios.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above.