Last week’s recap
The currencies were the work. There was a perfect correlation between the euro and the dollar by zones, so both sides were available: shorts off the dollar zones, and bounces on the euro and the other currencies, because the zones lined up exactly.
On the euro both moves were taken, and between them they carried the whole week.
On rates, people have relaxed. Only 17% of a hike is priced in ahead of the elections. And much as a hike would be welcome here, if the Treasuries pull back and the CPI does not “accidentally” show a rise next week, then at best there is no hike until January — if there is one at all.
The week ahead
Short version: Wednesday looks like a reversal day, a pullback at least on the risk assets.
EUR
Once again the read held — they are closing the sold options and reshuffling.
The zones are marked as the boundaries into the Fed meeting, with the zones for the week alongside them.
GBP
One portfolio, both openings. The main interest is a bounce off 1.30 and a move up, and there is no need to close everything at 1.3363 — it can be let run into the money there.
More likely the move from 1.30 to 1.3360 happens before the Fed meeting, and from there they could keep hammering it down toward 1.2915 or 1.2815. The reference points into the Fed are marked, but for now the attention is on the options portfolio rather than on them.
The Visible level gets worked without limits: the stop tolerance there would have to be around 50 points, and that is not acceptable. More precisely — up top the zone is clear, where to short is clear, and the stop is clear. Down below it is all too smeared out, and they could toss it below 1.2990, since that is a Visible zone. So there the plan is to wait for an impulse to form and then look for the entry point. 1.2919 gets worked with a limit on that kind of negative.
Bitcoin
Far away, and a big fly-past. So the thing to look at is what the call prices are in that zone around 101,500–102,000.
A pullback there would be nice, but if the Treasuries go down and risk appetite returns they could go without one. For a buy there is no entry yet — the options, though, can be traded.
Solana
They are giving some pullback for now. The level of interest is 101.50, which is where loading back into buys was the thought.
If they go up instead, then from the marked zones sells are the priority.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above — and if this is your first visit, where to start lays out a reading order through the free material.