Last week’s recap
Overall the week went to plan. On the euro there was a good reaction off the options. On gold the zone stopped price well too, which was workable, after which price went on down to conquer the zones flagged here for a long time.
On the Australian dollar someone keeps trading the expansion boundaries, and there were options portfolios being worked there as well.
Oil was traded on the long side last week after a while away from it — the market knows something about Iran and is trading Hegseth’s visits to Israel and the carrier redeployment. The open question is when they decide to continue the military action: before the elections, and then bail immediately saying they won, or after them, with the carrier reaching those shores around the end of November. The longs were covered at the close; given nothing has happened yet, Monday’s open could just as easily see positions dumped.
On gold there was an interesting buy-back from 4000 — but trading off visible levels and round numbers on the chart does not lead anywhere good.
A euro negative was also on watch, on rumours that Moody’s would announce a review of France’s credit rating at Friday’s close. They left it unchanged, so that negative is off the table for now, at least from that side.
GBP
This is where the Fed is being traded, and it is one of the main options this week. On the clusters the pound closed with sellers.
The CME has also calculated the Fed and the move into it for the week and priced it in — and the location it ended up in is one worth a great deal for trading with limits rather than by market.
The contract boundaries sit here too. The chance of a push out to them before expiration is about 1%.
Gold
The contract zones have fallen perfectly under the Fed for now. Until Wednesday that range is the one of interest: Tuesday is the monthly expiration, Wednesday the Fed.
Good volatility is priced in, but it will be recalculated toward the end of the week, and it gets more interesting to compute then.
Until Monday’s clearing, the 25% reaction zones are of interest, along with the boundary of the volatility move up to that clearing. What matters most, though, is the contract zone, where the 10% weekly zone also sits — a spill there is workable.
And one of the main Debts on gold is still sitting at 4375.
The plan, in one line
These are zones and scenarios being watched — the market decides, not the trader. Let price come to your levels and let the confirmations line up before you act. New to the terms? The glossary covers every structure named above — and if this is your first visit, where to start lays out a reading order through the free material.